Dr Petra Meier, a Senior Lecturer in Public Health at the University of Sheffield, has received interesting press coverage following her testimony to the Scottish Parliament’s health committee.
Dr Meier has been modelling the likely impact of a minimum pricing policy on the drinking behaviour of Scots. In its coverage, the Scotsman newspaper reported Dr Meier as ‘admitting’ there was no evidence as to whether the policy would work as it had not been tried anywhere before. Much to the amazement of the Scotman’s reporter, Dr Meier described modelling as “like the weather forecast” which, as a Labour MSP (opposed to the policy) pointed out, “is notoriously unreliable”.
Modelling, as economists and operational researchers will tell you, is a valuable tool when it comes to the predicting the likely impact of social policy options. It seems there is an urgent need to explain to the press just what modelling is, and how it can make a valuable contribution to political decision making.